The case study SWFL Real estate after Irma was presented by Jeff Tumbarello, Broker Steelbridge Realty LLC/ Director SWFL REIA at the SWFL REIA luncheon in October.

Disclosure:

  • This presentation is meant to provide some guidance from a statistical point of view.
  • This is my work done for my use and shared with you.
  • All data exported from MLS and trended with Microsoft excel.
  • Data was exported on 10/4/2017

SWFL Real estate after Irma: First thing.

  • Hurricanes have long had an influence on the Florida Real Estate market.
  • The Florida Land Boom in the 20’s was finished off by the 1926 and 1928 hurricanes.

 

SWFL Real estate after Irma: Where is the market today?
Volume Jan thru Sept YTD
Lee County Residential

2016 2017 DIFF
Volume  $  4,084,576,398 $4,360,981,530 6.77%
Counts 14,934 15,024 0.60%

 

SWFL Real estate after Irma: Pricing
Jan thru September YTD
Lee County Residential

2016 2017 DIFF
Average  $273,509 $290,268 6.13%
Median  $205,000 $220,000 7.32%

 

SWFL Real Estate after Irma: Cash Sales Percentage.
Jan thru September YTD
Lee County Residential

2016 2017 DIFF
cash 6,308 6,171 -2.17%
Cash % 42.24% 41.07% -2.76%

 

SWFL Real Estate after Irma: September versus September Volume

2016 2017 DIFF
Volume  $385,989,908 $278,857,948 -27.76%
Counts 1,499 989 -34.02%

SWFL Real Estate after Irma: September versus September Pricing

2016 2017 DIFF
Average  $257,498 $281,960 9.50%
Median  $209,000 $225,000 7.66%

 

Here is what the year looks like.

Real Estate after Irma

Hurricane Charley:

  • Hurricane Charley made landfall in SWFL on 8/13/2004 near the island of Cayo Costa, Florida as a 150 mph (240 km/h) Category 4 hurricane
  • The real estate market was in a boom that was beginning to turn into a mania. Charley brought a lot of attention to the market, brought an influx of insurance money and reduced some inventory.

Real estate after Irma

 

Real estate after Irma

 

Hurricane Wilma:

  • Hurricane Wilma made landfall in Cape Romano, Florida on Monday, October 24, 2005.
  • Statistically, I can prove the SWFL Real Estate market had started divergence to the downside in August of 2005. Wilma caused people up north to pause. Rapidly rising prices compounded this.
  • Wilma really ended the manias demand. Leverage is what carried any momentum from there.

Real estate after Irma

SWFL Real estate after Irma: Some numbers of note.

  • August 2004 (Charley Landfall) sales were down -23.92% from the previous month.
  • October of 2005 (Wilma Landfall) sales were down -27.07% from the previous month.
  • September of 2017 (Irma’s landfall) sales were down -41.24% from the previous month.

Notes:

  • I am putting more weight on the trends from Charlie than Wilma due to the current trajectory of the market.
  • There are 1610 properties pending in Lee County from the last 60 days.
  • In the last 10 days 453 properties have went pending. (10/4/2017)

Where is the market today?
Collier County Residential Volume.

2016 2017 DIFF
Volume  $4,244,646,006 $4,683,933,70 10.35%
Counts 7,553 7,880 4.33%

 

Where is the market today?
Collier County Residential Pricing.

2016 2017 DIFF
Average  $561,981 $594,408 5.77%
Median  $326,150 $340,000 4.25%

Where is the market today?
Collier County Residential Cash Sales Percentage.

2016 2017 DIFF
Cash 3,813 4,083 7.08%
Cash % 50.48% 51.81% 2.64%

Where is the market today?
Collier County Residential Volume.
September Only.

2016 2017 DIFF
Volume  $      344,532,804 $231,008,708 -32.95%
Counts 700 422 -39.71%

Where is the market today?
Collier County Residential Pricing.
September Only

2016 2017 DIFF
Average  $              492,190 $547,414 11.22%
Median  $              320,000 $330,000 3.13%

 

Where is the market today?
Collier County Residential Cash Sales Percentage.
September Only

2016 2017 DIFF
Cash 332 211 -36.45%
Cash % 47.43% 50.00% 5.42%

 

Hurricane Charley Sales Counts Patterns for Collier.

Real estate after Irma

Real estate after Irma

 

SWFL Real Estate After Irma: Some Thoughts.

  • Irma will be a more significant event for Collier and Bonita.
  • Kudos to the new building codes. The new construction industry should benefit.
  • Older resale’s may have issues with sentiment going forward. Especially older waterfront resale’s.
  • Watching the pending thru February will be on my radar. As will the foreclosure filings.
  • There will be opportunities in the non-bank distressed market.
  • Insurance companies appear to have gotten better at mass events in relation to loss prevention. I have spoke with several people where the insurance company has “approved vendors”. This will have an affect on local contractors.

SWFL Real Estate After Irma: Foreclosures.

  • I have seen interviews with public and private individuals referring to a bump in the foreclosures.
  • You have to understand the timeline to understand the possible trends.
  • The earliest a foreclosure will be filed is roughly 90 days from today. Then you have generally a 6 month process.
  • Due to our high percentage of cash sales since 2009. It is unlikely to trigger a mass event like the end of the last cycle.

~ Stay tuned (subscribe and follow) for updates going forward. Reposted from

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