The case study SWFL Real estate after Irma was presented by Jeff Tumbarello, Broker Steelbridge Realty LLC/ Director SWFL REIA at the SWFL REIA luncheon in October.
Disclosure:
- This presentation is meant to provide some guidance from a statistical point of view.
- This is my work done for my use and shared with you.
- All data exported from MLS and trended with Microsoft excel.
- Data was exported on 10/4/2017
SWFL Real estate after Irma: First thing.
- Hurricanes have long had an influence on the Florida Real Estate market.
- The Florida Land Boom in the 20’s was finished off by the 1926 and 1928 hurricanes.
SWFL Real estate after Irma: Where is the market today?
Volume Jan thru Sept YTD
Lee County Residential
2016 | 2017 | DIFF | |
Volume | $ 4,084,576,398 | $4,360,981,530 | 6.77% |
Counts | 14,934 | 15,024 | 0.60% |
SWFL Real estate after Irma: Pricing
Jan thru September YTD
Lee County Residential
2016 | 2017 | DIFF | |
Average | $273,509 | $290,268 | 6.13% |
Median | $205,000 | $220,000 | 7.32% |
SWFL Real Estate after Irma: Cash Sales Percentage.
Jan thru September YTD
Lee County Residential
2016 | 2017 | DIFF | |
cash | 6,308 | 6,171 | -2.17% |
Cash % | 42.24% | 41.07% | -2.76% |
SWFL Real Estate after Irma: September versus September Volume
2016 | 2017 | DIFF | |
Volume | $385,989,908 | $278,857,948 | -27.76% |
Counts | 1,499 | 989 | -34.02% |
SWFL Real Estate after Irma: September versus September Pricing
2016 | 2017 | DIFF | |
Average | $257,498 | $281,960 | 9.50% |
Median | $209,000 | $225,000 | 7.66% |
Here is what the year looks like.
Hurricane Charley:
- Hurricane Charley made landfall in SWFL on 8/13/2004 near the island of Cayo Costa, Florida as a 150 mph (240 km/h) Category 4 hurricane
- The real estate market was in a boom that was beginning to turn into a mania. Charley brought a lot of attention to the market, brought an influx of insurance money and reduced some inventory.
Hurricane Wilma:
- Hurricane Wilma made landfall in Cape Romano, Florida on Monday, October 24, 2005.
- Statistically, I can prove the SWFL Real Estate market had started divergence to the downside in August of 2005. Wilma caused people up north to pause. Rapidly rising prices compounded this.
- Wilma really ended the manias demand. Leverage is what carried any momentum from there.
SWFL Real estate after Irma: Some numbers of note.
- August 2004 (Charley Landfall) sales were down -23.92% from the previous month.
- October of 2005 (Wilma Landfall) sales were down -27.07% from the previous month.
- September of 2017 (Irma’s landfall) sales were down -41.24% from the previous month.
Notes:
- I am putting more weight on the trends from Charlie than Wilma due to the current trajectory of the market.
- There are 1610 properties pending in Lee County from the last 60 days.
- In the last 10 days 453 properties have went pending. (10/4/2017)
Where is the market today?
Collier County Residential Volume.
2016 | 2017 | DIFF | |
Volume | $4,244,646,006 | $4,683,933,70 | 10.35% |
Counts | 7,553 | 7,880 | 4.33% |
Where is the market today?
Collier County Residential Pricing.
2016 | 2017 | DIFF | |
Average | $561,981 | $594,408 | 5.77% |
Median | $326,150 | $340,000 | 4.25% |
Where is the market today?
Collier County Residential Cash Sales Percentage.
2016 | 2017 | DIFF | |
Cash | 3,813 | 4,083 | 7.08% |
Cash % | 50.48% | 51.81% | 2.64% |
Where is the market today?
Collier County Residential Volume.
September Only.
2016 | 2017 | DIFF | |
Volume | $ 344,532,804 | $231,008,708 | -32.95% |
Counts | 700 | 422 | -39.71% |
Where is the market today?
Collier County Residential Pricing.
September Only
2016 | 2017 | DIFF | |
Average | $ 492,190 | $547,414 | 11.22% |
Median | $ 320,000 | $330,000 | 3.13% |
Where is the market today?
Collier County Residential Cash Sales Percentage.
September Only
2016 | 2017 | DIFF | |
Cash | 332 | 211 | -36.45% |
Cash % | 47.43% | 50.00% | 5.42% |
Hurricane Charley Sales Counts Patterns for Collier.
SWFL Real Estate After Irma: Some Thoughts.
- Irma will be a more significant event for Collier and Bonita.
- Kudos to the new building codes. The new construction industry should benefit.
- Older resale’s may have issues with sentiment going forward. Especially older waterfront resale’s.
- Watching the pending thru February will be on my radar. As will the foreclosure filings.
- There will be opportunities in the non-bank distressed market.
- Insurance companies appear to have gotten better at mass events in relation to loss prevention. I have spoke with several people where the insurance company has “approved vendors”. This will have an affect on local contractors.
SWFL Real Estate After Irma: Foreclosures.
- I have seen interviews with public and private individuals referring to a bump in the foreclosures.
- You have to understand the timeline to understand the possible trends.
- The earliest a foreclosure will be filed is roughly 90 days from today. Then you have generally a 6 month process.
- Due to our high percentage of cash sales since 2009. It is unlikely to trigger a mass event like the end of the last cycle.
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