Lee County Real estate after Irma: This is an update to the case study “SWFL Real estate after Irma” that was presented by Jeff Tumbarello, Broker Steelbridge Realty LLC/ Director SWFL REIA at the SWFL REIA luncheon in October.

Disclosure:

  • This presentation is meant to provide some guidance from a statistical point of view.
  • This is my work done for my use and shared with you.
  • All data exported from MLS and trended with Microsoft excel.
  • Data was exported on 11/15/2017

Lee County Real estate after Irma: Where is the market today?

Volume Jan thru October YTD (Year to Date)
Lee County Residential

2016 2017 DIFF
Sales Volume  $  4,460,924,501 $4,747,859,631 6.43%
Sales Counts 16,341 16,419 0.48%

Note: Volume is the most important metric in a market. The fact that volume is not down from a year over year perspective is a reason for optimism.

Lee County Real estate after Irma: Pricing
Jan thru September YTD
Lee County Residential

Average Sold Price  $ 272,990 $289,169 5.93%
Median Sold Price  $205,000 $220,000 7.32%

Note: The pricing always seem to go up after a Hurricane. I think the lower price points have more cancellations.

Lee County Real Estate after Irma: Cash Sales Percentage.
Jan thru September YTD
Lee County Residential

Sales Counts in cash 6,849 6,680 -2.47%
Cash % 41.91% 40.68% -2.93%

Note: The cash sales percentage is still a very positive metric for the market.

Lee County Real Estate after Irma: October 2016 versus October 2017 Volume and Sales Counts

2016 2017 DIFF
Volume  $      376,077,728 $368,417,806 -2.04%
Counts 1,406 1,318 -6.26%

Note: Some of the sales counts and volume are from the previous month.

Lee County Real Estate after Irma: October 2016 versus October 2017 Pricing

2016 2017 DIFF
Average  $267,481 $279,528 4.50%
Median  $210,000 $215,000 2.38%

 

Lee County Real Estate after Irma: October 2016 versus October 2017 Cash Sales Metrics

2016 2017 DIFF
cash 540 484 -10.37%
Cash % 38.41% 36.72% -4.39%

Lee County Real Estate after Irma: Foreclosures:

From the October 2017 Lee County Foreclosure Trend Report

October 2017 Lee County Foreclosure Trend Report

Notes:

  • I have seen interviews with public and private individuals referring to a bump in the foreclosures.
  • You have to understand the timeline to understand the possible trends.
  • The earliest a foreclosure will be filed is roughly 90 days from today. Then you have generally a 6 month process.
  • Due to our high percentage of cash sales since 2009. It is unlikely to trigger a mass event like the end of the last cycle.

Lee County Real Estate after Irma: How do we compare to other storms?

Lee County Real estate after Irma Lee County Real estate after Irma Lee County Real estate after Irma

Notes: From a pattern perspective we are resembling Wilma the most. Time will tell if that is the case.
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