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The future of the SWFL housing market 2019

The future of the SWFL housing market 2019 was presented at the November 2018 SWFL REIA general meeting.

The future of the SWFL housing market 2019 disclosure:

  • In 2009, I presented a Whitepaper on Lee County Florida from 2009 I have been revisiting this paper recently.
  • This presentation is my research done for me and shared with you.
  • This is meant to be a 10,000 sq ft view of the market.
  • Data came from everywhere… but mainly
    • Census Bureau.
    • Federal Reserve.
    • MLS export.

3 ways to react to change.

  • Watch it happen.
  • Complain about it.
  • Capitalize on it.

Everyone and each generation share common lifecycle characteristics.

  • Eat Meals.
  • Make babies.
  • Live in Real Estate.

Each generation has its own traits and modalities but in the end, we all do the same things.

Where are we now?

  • Currently, we (SWFL) are a balanced and growing market.
  • Everyone wants to compare this market to 2005/2006 but currently, we do not share the same metric traits of that market.
  • Traditionally we have been a retiree based market. Timing the birth rate of people turning 62 timed the last cycle almost perfectly.

The future of the SWFL housing market 2019: How did we get here?

  • 2001 thru 2003 we experienced a growth cycle in SWFL. In 2004 thru 2005 this transformed into a speculative mania.
  • An economic bubble or asset bubble is trading in an asset at a price or price range that strongly exceeds the asset’s intrinsic value.
  • For example, a 330k North Cape Coral home that rented for $1,600 a month.

 

The future of the SWFL housing market 2019: Difference in demand.

The future of the SWFL housing market 2019 single family permits in Cape Cora; 2001 thru 2008

Check out the growth 2004 thru 2005! By percentages it is astounding.The future of the SWFL housing market 2019 Cape Coral permits 2009 thru 2018

The sharp jump from 2014 forward shows growth but the percentages are not in line with a mania.

  • The market bottomed in August of 2008. Prices have risen since then.
  • Of recent the average price is flat and the median price is still rising.

The future of the SWFL housing market 2019: Potential negative disruptive factors.

  • Change in Demographic Demand.
  • Easy leverage causes a speculative mania to form.
  • Random external events (black swans).

The future of the SWFL housing market 2019: Are foreclosures an issue?

Foreclosure report for Lee County showing the foreclosures by year for October 2018

What does this spike 2016 mean?

  • Lending was loosened.
  • The amount of the defaults is at a pace that the market can absorb.

There have just not been enough mortgages since 2008 to drive another wave as we seen before. Below is the last cycle.

Foreclosure report for Lee County showing the entire last cycle for Lis Pendens filings

The future of the SWFL housing market 2019: Demographic Trends

  • Every generation is traveling across a level of time.
  • Millennials are on the cusp of surpassing Baby Boomers as the nation’s largest living adult generation. Millennial’s, whom we define as ages 20 to 35 in 2016.
  • Millennials are expected to overtake the Boomers in population in 2019 as their numbers swell to 73 million and Boomer’s decline to 72 million.
  • Generation X (ages 36 to 51 in 2016) is projected to pass the Boomers in population by 2028.
  • The Millennial generation continues to grow as young immigrants expand its ranks.
  • Note the Millennial and Gen Z generation are always grouped together but they are very different. Think 18 years old versus 30 years old.
  • From 1965 to 1999 there were 140 million babies born.
  • You also cannot ignore the impact of immigration and foreign investment.
  • One percent of the U.S. baby boomer population controls about one-third of that generation’s assets and the richest 10 percent of the population own more than two-thirds
  • While the Millennial have had a later start in the life cycle, the boomers are also retiring much later. They are balancing each other out.

The future of the SWFL housing market 2019: Some perspective on 55 and up assets.

  • While they will not buying into the market in growing numbers, they will be still participating in our local economy.
  • There will be the internal retiree migration.
    • Many start in a house or condo that is not age restricted.
    • They then transition to an age-restricted community.

The future of the SWFL housing market 2019 chart of the live births for the United States from the census

The future of the SWFL housing market 2019 showing the census data for people turning 62

The future of the SWFL housing market 2019: The local economy.

It is basically two things happening at once:

  • The Boomers will spend less money.
  • The millennials will spend more money.

The future of the SWFL housing market 2019 showing income and expenditures by generational cohort

The future of the SWFL housing market 2019 chart showing generations by cohorts by percentages

 

 

The future of the SWFL housing market 2019: The millennials are making more money.

The future of the SWFL housing market 2019 chart showing real incomes by age group

That generation has experienced the most wage growth of recent. They all do not live in the basement as social media would have you believe. They are also heading up more households.

The future of the SWFL housing market 2019 chart showing millennial population as they are likely to head households

They are also migrating in large numbers. SWFL is one of the destinations.

The future of the SWFL housing market 2019 showing the migration for attracting millennials The future of the SWFL housing market 2019: The Macro Picture

A rising tide lifts all boats The aphorism “a rising tide lifts all boats” is associated with the idea that improvements in the general economy will benefit all participants in that economy, and that economic policy, particularly government economic policy, should, therefore, focus on the general macroeconomic environment first and foremost.

First, let us start with the money supply.

In response to the 2008 financial crisis, the money supply was expanded to stabilize the economy. Here is the long view.

The future of the SWFL housing market 2019 chart showing the money supply

 

Here is the 10-year view.

The future of the SWFL housing market 2019 showing the 10 year chart of the United States Money Supply

Here is the 5-year view.

The future of the SWFL housing market 2019 here is the 10 year view of the United States Money Supply from the Federal reserve bank

Here is the one year view.

The future of the SWFL housing market 2019 here is the one year view of the United States money supply from the Federal Reserve Bank

Notice how the expansion by ratios is slowing down. Traditionally this causes a pullback in the economy. There is not much traditional about the economy anymore.

The future of the SWFL housing market 2019: Macro debt levels.

Commercial and Industrial Loans, All Commercial Banks

The future of the SWFL housing market 2019 Commercial and Industrial Loans, All Commercial Banks

Total Consumer Credit Owned and Securitized, Outstanding

The future of the SWFL housing market 2019 this is a chart showing the Total Consumer Credit Owned and Securitized, Outstanding

Charge-Off Rate on Credit Card Loans, All Commercial Banks. How are the consumers performing with this debt?

The future of the SWFL housing market 2019 Charge-Off Rate on Credit Card Loans, All Commercial Banks. How are the consumers performing with this debt?

How about Student loan debt? This will impact the ability of the Millenials to buy and how much they can buy.

The future of the SWFL housing market 2019 How about Student loan debt? This will impact the ability of the Millenials to buy and how much they can buy.

How about 1 to 4 family residential debt levels? This shows how under or over-leveraged this is in relation to the economy.

The future of the SWFL housing market 2019 How about 1 to 4 family residential debt levels? This shows how under or over-leveraged this is in relation to the economy.

The only debt level that has not blown thru the peaks of the last cycle is this asset class. This could change as the cycle goes further. Dodd-Frank is impeding this.

The future of the SWFL housing market 2019: Changes in the Real Estate Industry.

  • There are no information gatekeepers anymore.
  • The transition from a low to moderate interest rate environment will have challenges.
  • Technology disruption…
  • AI (artificial intelligence) being able to determine the difference between intent and interest is going to be the key to profitability.

The future of the SWFL housing market 2019: Some thoughts on Commercial Real Estate.

  • Retail will need to change. Call it the Amazon effect.
  • Also, the sharing economy (Uber) will change this space.

The following slides were from an SME from the Federal Reserve at the CIP Group that meets in the morning. If you are into commercial, it is a great group. Click here for more information.

The future of the SWFL housing market 2019 showing the malls at risk of closing by asset class

Office Space will be impacted by the changing economy.

The future of the SWFL housing market 2019 Office Space will be impacted by the changing economy.

 

The future of the SWFL housing market 2019, this is a chart showing total occupied square feet by worker

As interest rates rise many of the low cap rate investments will feel some pain.

The future of the SWFL housing market 2019 a chart showing how an increase in cap rates will change the LTV of financed commercial transactions

Notes: Commercial is in a period of change. Industrial seems to be the most stable.

The future of the SWFL housing market 2019: Other trends of note.

  • 80 percent of the worlds internet traffic will be video by 2019.
  • With a $205 billion Internet, ad spend compared to a TV ad spend of $192 billion, global Internet advertising spends exceeded TV advertising spend for the very first time in 2017.
  • Over 52 percent of the traffic in 2019 is expected to Social Media.

The future of the SWFL housing market 2019: things to watch.

  • Can and how do we transition from a retiree driven community to one more balanced?
  • Will we overbuild?
  • Will we over lever?
  • How will the 55 plus communities fare with lesser demand?

Thanks for reading. Please let me know what you think.

The Southwest Florida Real Estate Investment Association is the leading source of SWFL real estate investing events that provide investment education and networking in southwest Florida. We analyze the housing market and foreclosures and provide information, education and networking events in order to build a network and knowledge base for investors and potential investors. Our members include real estate agent, brokers, investors, hedge fund managers, rehabbers, wholesalers and more.

Our SWFL REIA General Meeting is held in Fort Myers where we provide education on hot topics in investing and an opportunity to enjoy the camaraderie of your fellow investors. You’ll get a chance to ask for advice from successful real estate professionals and even make a few deals on your latest projects.

To become a member, anyone can register as an individual, a couple, or a corporation. Being a member opens the doors for endless networking opportunities, advice from members with decades of experience, new ideas from entrepreneurs, camaraderie with those just beginning, and deals and contracts done in the meeting room. For those interested in Cape Coral rental property investment and/or Fort Myers rental property investment, SWFL REIA will be able to provide a network to help launch a successful investment career.

The SWFL REIA is known and respected as a source of current, actionable and useful information about the housing market in the area that we meet.

We meet twice a month.

Click here for information about the monthly luncheon.  

Click here for information about our nighttime general meeting. 

One of the premier sources for real estate investing networking and education is the SWFL REIA. In the real estate world, the SWFL REIA is different in that they do not do information product sales. Their meetings are focusing on the best ways of investing in real estate by collaborating with other property investors who are sharing their experiences.

We look forward to meeting you at a meeting soon!
Click here for membership information

Get our meeting notices and market data emailed to you.




 Subject: The future of the SWFL housing market 2019
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Investor Financing with Rick Altemeyer of Residential Home Funding

Investor Financing with Rick Altemeyer of Residential Home Funding Interview.

Rick has been serving the mortgage needs of Southwest Florida for over 20 years. Rick is happily married to Kim, and they have two children. Rick enjoys boating, golf, and tennis when the weather permits. Rick is a graduate of Indiana University with majors in Accounting and Marketing. Sigma Nu was his Fraternity, and also played college football and track.

 

Need to get in touch with Rick? CLICK HERE

 

The Southwest Florida Real Estate Investment Association is the leading source of SWFL real estate investing events that provide investment education and networking in southwest Florida. We analyze the housing market and foreclosures and provide information, education and networking events in order to build a network and knowledge base for investors and potential investors. Our members include real estate agent, brokers, investors, hedge fund managers, rehabbers, wholesalers and more.

Our SWFL REIA General Meeting is held in Fort Myers where we provide education on hot topics in investing and an opportunity to enjoy the camaraderie of your fellow investors. You’ll get a chance to ask for advice from successful real estate professionals and even make a few deals on your latest projects.It is also a place to find investor financing for your deals.

To become a member, anyone can register as an individual, a couple, or a corporation. Being a member opens the doors for endless networking opportunities, advice from members with decades of experience, new ideas from entrepreneurs, camaraderie with those just beginning, and deals and contracts done in the meeting room. For those interested in Cape Coral rental property investment and/or Fort Myers rental property investment, SWFL REIA will be able to provide a network to help launch a successful investment career.

The SWFL REIA is known and respected as a source of current, actionable and useful information about the housing market in the area that we meet.

We meet twice a month.

Click here for information about the monthly luncheon.  

Click here for information about our nighttime general meeting. 

One of the premier sources for real estate investing networking and education is the SWFL REIA. In the real estate world, the SWFL REIA is different in that they do not do information product sales. Their meetings are focusing on the best ways of investing in real estate by collaborating with other property investors who are sharing their experiences.

We look forward to meeting you at a meeting soon!
Click here for membership information

Get our meeting notices and market data emailed to you.




 Subject: Investor Financing with Rick Altemeyer of Residential Home Funding

Mario Datillo on Mobile Home Park Investing

Mr. Mario Dattilo was born in Minnesota and currently resides in Florida. He has over 10 years of real estate investment experience. Mario has led the formation of strategic partnerships to acquire single-family homes with local municipalities and non-profits to create both profitable and a positive impact on housing communities. He was previously a managing partner of a real estate brokerage and currently holds a real estate license in the state of Florida.

Mario Datillo has co-managed REACQ’s residential, multifamily, and commercial real estate portfolios since inception. His current role as Vice President includes acquisitions, investor relations, and asset management.

 

Have a deal you want to send to Mario Datillo? Get his email address here. 

The Southwest Florida Real Estate Investment Association is the leading source of SWFL real estate investing events that provide investment education and networking in southwest Florida. We analyze the housing market and foreclosures and provide information, education and networking events in order to build a network and knowledge base for investors and potential investors. Our members include real estate agent, brokers, investors, hedge fund managers, rehabbers, wholesalers and more.

Our SWFL REIA General Meeting is held in Fort Myers where we provide education on hot topics in investing and an opportunity to enjoy the camaraderie of your fellow investors. You’ll get a chance to ask for advice from successful real estate professionals and even make a few deals on your latest projects.

To become a member, anyone can register as an individual, a couple, or a corporation. Being a member opens the doors for endless networking opportunities, advice from members with decades of experience, new ideas from entrepreneurs, camaraderie with those just beginning, and deals and contracts done in the meeting room. For those interested in Cape Coral rental property investment and/or Fort Myers rental property investment, SWFL REIA will be able to provide a network to help launch a successful investment career.

The SWFL REIA is known and respected as a source of current, actionable and useful information about the housing market in the area that we meet.

We meet twice a month.

Click here for information about the monthly luncheon.  

Click here for information about our nighttime general meeting. 

One of the premier sources for real estate investing networking and education is the SWFL REIA. In the real estate world, the SWFL REIA is different in that they do not do information product sales. Their meetings are focusing on the best ways of investing in real estate by collaborating with other property investors who are sharing their experiences.

We look forward to meeting you at a meeting soon!
Click here for membership information

Get our meeting notices and market data emailed to you.




 Subject: Interview with Mario Datillo

 

Market Metrics for Lee County Residential October 2018

Quick update on  Market Metrics for Lee County Residential October 2018

There is a lot of interesting things going on, you have two different demographics trends at play. We will discuss them at the SWFL REIA General Meeting The future of the SWFL Real Estate Market.

Why would you come? Back in 2009, we presented a Whitepaper on Lee County Florida from 2009 . (the white paper is full of typos, It was written for my use and shared, hat tip to one of my mentors for handing me a flashlight and putting me on the path) That presentation was spot on and enabled those who heeded it to be better prepared. This presentation is an update of this.

 

Year over year metrics
October 17 versus 18
Lee County
all data from exported MLS 11/12/2018 12:12
2017 2018 DIFF
Volume  $375,409,925 $404,302,341 7.70%
Counts 1,340 1,448 8.06%
Average  $280,157 $279,214 -0.34%
Median  $215,500 $225,000 4.41%

The Southwest Florida Real Estate Investment Association is the leading source of SWFL real estate investing events that provide investment education and networking in southwest Florida. We analyze the housing market and foreclosures and provide information, education and networking events in order to build a network and knowledge base for investors and potential investors. Our members include real estate agent, brokers, investors, hedge fund managers, rehabbers, wholesalers and more.

Our SWFL REIA General Meeting is held in Fort Myers where we provide education on hot topics in investing and an opportunity to enjoy the camaraderie of your fellow investors. You’ll get a chance to ask for advice from successful real estate professionals and even make a few deals on your latest projects.

To become a member, anyone can register as an individual, a couple, or a corporation. Being a member opens the doors for endless networking opportunities, advice from members with decades of experience, new ideas from entrepreneurs, camaraderie with those just beginning, and deals and contracts done in the meeting room. For those interested in Cape Coral rental property investment and/or Fort Myers rental property investment, SWFL REIA will be able to provide a network to help launch a successful investment career.

The SWFL REIA is known and respected as a source of current, actionable and useful information about the housing market in the area that we meet. Just like the Market Metrics for Lee County Residential October 2018.

We meet twice a month.

Click here for information about the monthly luncheon.  

Click here for information about our nighttime general meeting. 

One of the premier sources for real estate investing networking and education is the SWFL REIA. In the real estate world, the SWFL REIA is different in that they do not do information product sales. Their meetings are focusing on the best ways of investing in real estate by collaborating with other property investors who are sharing their experiences.

We look forward to meeting you at a meeting soon!
Click here for membership information

Get our meeting notices and market data emailed to you.




 Subject: LMarket Metrics for Lee County Residential October 2018
The Market Metrics for Lee County Residential October 2018 was prepared by Jeff Tumbarello, Broker Steelbridge Realty, Director SWFL REIA

 

Stu Silver on Mobile Home Park Investing

Stu Silver is one of the most well known and successful investors in the SWFL. Stu Silver recently was part of a panel about Mobile Home Park investing at the SWFL REIA General Meeting. 

Interested in his books? Click here.

 

The Southwest Florida Real Estate Investment Association is the leading source of SWFL real estate investing events that provide investment education and networking in southwest Florida. We analyze the housing market and foreclosures and provide information, education and networking events in order to build a network and knowledge base for investors and potential investors. Our members include real estate agent, brokers, investors, hedge fund managers, rehabbers, wholesalers and more.

Our SWFL REIA General Meeting is held in Fort Myers where we provide education on hot topics in investing and an opportunity to enjoy the camaraderie of your fellow investors. You’ll get a chance to ask for advice from successful real estate professionals and even make a few deals on your latest projects.

To become a member, anyone can register as an individual, a couple, or a corporation. Being a member opens the doors for endless networking opportunities, advice from members with decades of experience, new ideas from entrepreneurs, camaraderie with those just beginning, and deals and contracts done in the meeting room. For those interested in Cape Coral rental property investment and/or Fort Myers rental property investment, SWFL REIA will be able to provide a network to help launch a successful investment career.

The SWFL REIA is known and respected as a source of current, actionable and useful information about the housing market in the area that we meet.

We meet twice a month.

Click here for information about the monthly luncheon.  

Click here for information about our nighttime general meeting. 

One of the premier sources for real estate investing networking and education is the SWFL REIA. In the real estate world, the SWFL REIA is different in that they do not do information product sales. Their meetings are focusing on the best ways of investing in real estate by collaborating with other property investors who are sharing their experiences.

We look forward to meeting you at a meeting soon!
Click here for membership information

Get our meeting notices and market data emailed to you.




 Subject: Interview with Stu Silver

 

October 2018 Foreclosure report for Lee County

Where does the October 2018 Foreclosure report for Lee County come from?

We download from public records and trend with Microsoft Excel. We have been doing this since 2007. This report has value because it is a leading indicator of bank-owned homes coming to market.

Compiled and analyzed by Jeff Tumbarello.

Foreclosure report for Lee County: Trends at a glance.

Lis Pendens:

  • October 2018: 91 Mortgage related Lis Pendens.
  • September  2018:  79 Mortgage related Lis Pendens.
  • October 2017:  19 Mortgage related Lis Pendens.

Certificates of Title:

  • October 2018: 68 Certificates of Title were conveyed.
  • September 2018: 49 Certificates of Title were conveyed.
  • October 2017: 22 Certificates of Title were conveyed.

Foreclosure report for Lee County: Chart Metrics.

Foreclosure report for Lee County Foreclosure report for Lee County Foreclosure report for Lee County Foreclosure report for Lee County Foreclosure report for Lee County Foreclosure report for Lee County

Foreclosure report for Lee County: Top Ten Mortgage-Related Lis Pendens Filers.

BANK OF AMERICA N A

5 5.49%

JPMORGAN CHASE BANK NATIONAL ASSOCIATION

5 5.49%

WELLS FARGO BANK N A

5

5.49%

LOANDEPOT.COM LLC 4

4.40%

WELLS FARGO BANK NA

4 4.40%
BANK OF NEW YORK MELLON 3

3.30%

DITECH FINANCIAL LLC

3

3.30%

NATIONSTAR MORTGAGE LLC

3 3.30%

FEDERAL NATIONAL MORTGAGE ASSOCIATION

2

2.20%

LAKEVIEW LOAN SERVICING LLC

2

2.20%

 

Foreclosure report for Lee County: Top Ten Entities for Certificates of Title.

FEDERAL NATIONAL MORTGAGE ASSOCIATION

6

12.24%

BANK OF NEW YORK MELLON

4

8.16%

HURRICANE HOUSE CONDOMINIUM ASSOCIATION INC

3

6.12%

CALIFORNIA LAW GROUP LLC

2 4.08%

DEUTSCHE BANK NATIONAL TRUST COMPANY TRUSTEE

2 4.08%
SEAWATCH ON-THE-BEACH CONDOMINIUM ASSOCIATION INC

2

4.08%

TORTUGA BEACH CLUB CONDOMINIUM ASSOCIATION INC

2

4.08%

US BANK NATIONAL ASSOCIATION TRUSTEE

2 4.08%

JOTCAR INC

1

2.04%

BANK OF NEW YORK MELLON TRUSTEE

1

2.04%

Foreclosure report for Lee County: Notes.

  • The trend from the Irma disruption has returned to “normal” (that is the worst word to ever use in relation to real estate stats…)
  • The current trend of the distressed market NOT being the primary (last cycle) driver will continue.
  • The current filings appear to be the following factors.
  • Old Modifications that are now going bad. (2005-2007)
  • New Low money down builder transactions. (2016-2018)
  • “Normal” Distressed Situations.
  • Probates where a mortgage was involved. (2005-2007)
  • Storm Damaged houses.

The Southwest Florida Real Estate Investment Association is the leading source of SWFL real estate investing events that provide investment education and networking in southwest Florida. We analyze the housing market and foreclosures and provide information, education and networking events in order to build a network and knowledge base for investors and potential investors. Our members include real estate agent, brokers, investors, hedge fund managers, rehabbers, wholesalers and more.

Our SWFL REIA General Meeting is held in Fort Myers where we provide education on hot topics in investing and an opportunity to enjoy the camaraderie of your fellow investors. You’ll get a chance to ask for advice from successful real estate professionals and even make a few deals on your latest projects.

To become a member, anyone can register as an individual, a couple, or a corporation. Being a member opens the doors for endless networking opportunities, advice from members with decades of experience, new ideas from entrepreneurs, camaraderie with those just beginning, and deals and contracts done in the meeting room. For those interested in Cape Coral rental property investment and/or Fort Myers rental property investment, SWFL REIA will be able to provide a network to help launch a successful investment career.

The SWFL REIA is known and respected as a source of current, actionable and useful information about the housing market in the area that we meet.

We meet twice a month.

Click here for information about the monthly luncheon.  

Click here for information about our nighttime general meeting. 

One of the premier sources for real estate investing networking and education is the SWFL REIA. In the real estate world, the SWFL REIA is different in that they do not do information product sales. Their meetings are focusing on the best ways of investing in real estate by collaborating with other property investors who are sharing their experiences.

We look forward to meeting you at a meeting soon!
Click here for membership information

Get our meeting notices and market data emailed to you.




 Subject: October 2018 Foreclosure report for Lee County

 

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