Understanding Trends SWFL Real Estate Market Trends.
Everybody talks about trends but what, exactly, is a trend? Webster’s dictionary defines a “trend” as:
- (verb) “To have a general tendency; said of events, conditions, opinions”
- (noun) “The general or prevailing tendency or course of events”
The base driver (or maybe base indicator) of the SWFL Market Real Estate Market?
- A person who has retired from a working or professional career
- In-migrating retiree spending initiates growth.
- New jobs are created to meet demand for goods and services of from new residents.
- Some retiree households construct new homes, creating additional jobs and income. Some purchase or rent within the traditional market place.
- an official enumeration of the population, with details as to age, sex, occupation, etc.
- They maintain a count of live births (along with many other data sets). This is how you can project and extrapolate current and previous retiree trends.
How do we know if this is valid?
- Thru analysis, it has been determined that 62 years of age appears to be the age to trend.
- So if you go back 62 years, you should be able to estimate the number of retirees for this and the coming years?
The simple math always sheds the most illuminated path…
- The SWFL real estate market crashed in 2005 thru 2007.
- If you go back 62 years. That is 1943 thru 1945. WW2 caused a large drop in the US birth rate.
- Low and behold, 62 years later. All the retirement centers in the country crash first. Therefore popping the bubble.
Notes on last cycle
- A full blow leverage induced mania formed in late 2004 thru 2006.
- The retirees started the early growth phase of the SWFL real estate market, 2002 thru early 2004. Blind speculation fueled by no doc leverage fueled 2005 thru 2006.
So what do these trends project about 2016?
- When: Tuesday, October 20th from 5:00 -7:30 pm
- Where: the Marina at Edison Ford 2360 W 1st St. Fort Myers, FL